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Weighing Credit Union Investment Strategies

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Given the flight to safety combined with sustained low loan demand, threats to non-interest income and NCUSIF assessments, many credit unions are reevaluating their investment strategy.

The problem is not enough credit unions are evaluating their investment strategy in light of their entire financial structure and strategic objectives.  They are evaluating one investment at a time. In other words, this investment seems to be a good deal today. But how long will it be a good deal?  And, if/when the decision needs to be unwound, what will be the viable options?  How does it fit with the credit union’s strategic objectives and financial structure?

Let’s take an example using callable bonds.  We are seeing credit unions purchase callable bonds with final maturities of 10 and 15 years.  The reasoning too often is, we need to do something, and they are going to be called anyway, so we may as well get the extra yield today.

Typically, people say they will sell it before rates become unfavorable, therefore they won’t be stuck with it.  The only reliable way that this could happen is if the credit union could accurately forecast rates.  A strategy assuming that you know what will happen in the market, before the market occurs, is fraught with danger and has burned many institutions.

Some say that if rates go up they won’t need to sell low-yielding investments because loan demand will be so good, the yields on new loans will offset the risk of the lower-yielding investments.  This could happen.  However, it is important to keep in mind that rates can go up without economic recovery.

Stating the obvious, there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty—there always has been.  Yet decisions have to be made.  Just make sure your decision framework is sound.  Stick with the basics:

  • Make decisions in light of your entire financial structure.
  • Agree on how long you are willing to live with your decision if things don’t go as planned.  In the above example, answer:  are we willing to live with this decision for the next 10 or 15 years?  If not, how are we going to know it is time to unwind before it results in unacceptable risk for our credit union? This thought process should be followed when making any decision with potential long-term consequences.
  • Don’t assume that the future will be brighter or more forgiving than the present.  Isn’t that part of the mindset that got us here in the first place?
  • Document the rationale for major decisions.  Memories are short, so it’s important that key players remember why the decision was made in the first place.  Especially if the changes in the environment result in unfavorable financial performance.
  • Test drive your investment strategy before you implement it by using your A/LM model.  Don’t just look up +300 basis points either.  Remember, rates were 500 basis points higher just three years ago.  By rehearsing tomorrow today, you can understand the potential risk of what you are buying and can decide if that risk is worth today’s reward.
  • Agree on your appetite for risk for your entire enterprise, stick with it and manage to it.

This writing is not intended to say that callable bonds are bad, we are using them for example purposes only.  Our philosophy is that every decision has a trade-off; it is critical to understand the trade-off before implementing decisions.  It is up to decision makers to understand how each investment they purchase works not only today, but as the environment changes.  Decision makers must also understand how investments complement or compound issues in their entire financial structure and risk profile.

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When Will This Be Over?

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It’s natural to wonder when things will get back to “normal.”  But week after week, the only thing consistent in the economic indicators is that they are not consistent.  So how do we plan for the future?

Most credit unions are designed to thrive in a different type of economic environment─one we may not see again for a long time.  Yet opportunities exist in every environment.  The key is the ability to alter our mindset and look for ways to take advantage of the current reality.

Try test driving the scenario:  “It is 2015 and we are thriving.  The economy is about the same as it was in 2010.”  What did you do to thrive?  How is your strategy different than it was in 2010?  Instead of looking for a “magic bullet,” consider staying true to your core business and improve areas of expertise.  For example, there may not be much loan demand at the moment, but by truly understanding what your target market needs and values, you can work toward getting more of the loan demand that currently exists.

Also, many institutions are focused on cutting costs; according to NCUA’s aggregate FPR for March 2010, there was a 36% decline in the industry’s average operating expense ratio from March 2009 to March 2010.  However, keep in mind that some cuts are not sustainable, such as pay cuts and leaving critical positions vacant.  While they may be necessary in the short term, work toward sustainable cuts like improvements in processes and strategic changes in product offerings.  Consider the following statistics from the Harvard Business Review’s July-August 2009 readers’ survey, How Bleak is the Landscape?

  • Only 27% of businesses surveyed are streamlining product or service offerings
  • Only 34% are reengineering processes
  • Only 37% are improving current products, services or customer support

Rather than hunkering down and waiting for the storm to pass, meet the storm head-on.  Stay focused on strategy and never stop thinking about ways to improve your business.

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Prolonged Low Rate Environment?

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For months many have been watching and wondering when the inevitable increase in market rates might materialize.  Now, with some economists projecting that rates will stay at historic lows for another 12-18 months, credit unions should evaluate how, or if, they can continue to maintain net interest margin and ROA.

Not all institutions have room to lower deposits enough to mitigate the continued erosion in the yield on assets.  In a sense, deposit pricing is reaching a “floor” for many credit unions.  All else being equal, ROA will continue to erode and interest rate risk profiles will weaken as higher-rate loans and investments roll off, being replaced with lower yielding assets.

So what should credit unions do?  Common strategies include looking beyond the margin and evaluating expenses, as well as potential new sources of non-interest income.  As mentioned in previous posts, some institutions are stretching for yield, either in loans or investments.  If this strategy is employed, institutions need to carefully monitor the impact on the risk profile, and make sure decisions are tested beforehand and fit within the credit union’s philosophy and A/LM policy/guidelines.

Finally, some institutions have chosen to not take any drastic steps at this time, and have instead begun to adjust expectations at both the employee and board level, re-evaluating what success looks like in this environment.  One potential saving grace is that loan losses seem to be stabilizing in many areas, but should not be taken for granted given what institutions have experienced over the last two years.

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Are Your Members Sending You A Signal?

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According to NCUA’s first quarter data, shares grew an average of almost 11% (annualized) while loan growth declined 4.76% (annualized)─over a 15% differential.  Funds not loaned out are sitting in investments (generally not earning very much) and are putting a squeeze on the margin.  With loan demand down, many of our clients are requesting what-if scenarios on purchasing longer-term investments with these “excess funds” to pick up a little extra yield.

While running what-if scenarios on the asset side of the balance sheet is a good idea, don’t forget the other half of the equation.  Another common theme we are seeing is an increase in non-maturity shares and a decrease in CDs.  This certainly takes some pressure off the cost of funds today, but it could be costly to mistake a potentially short-term member adjustment to current market conditions for a long-term trend.

At many places today, the rate differential between a money market and a CD is not that big—so it seems that members are willing to give up a few basis points.  But for what? Are your members sending you a signal that they are positioning themselves to move to the stock market as soon as “things turn around?”  Or back to CDs when rates tick up some?  We recommend that you test out these potential scenarios, and more, to help you get a better handle on how things could possibly play out in the future.

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Consumers Shunning Risk

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The question that many credit union leaders are asking themselves lately is, how far do we reach for yield?  With 10-year Treasury Rates rounding near 3% recently, how far can the balance sheet be pushed to make up for a squeezing margin?

Consumers at large are facing a similar dilemma when it comes to managing their own balance sheet.  How much risk is too much?  And with the world turning on its head, with perceived threats of war on the Korean Peninsula and dark concerns about the financial stability of European markets, that question is becoming harder to answer.  Even as consumer confidence is up on news of positive job forecasts, the Dow has tumbled below 10,000—not crossing that threshold since February 8th of this year (Dow Falls Under 10000 as Risk Is Shunned, WSJ, 5/25/10).

As the world continues to become more complex, and as ripples from the financial crisis and new developments in world affairs unfold, be mindful of consumers’ tendency toward safety.  While many credit union leaders cannot imagine another influx of low-cost funding, the perceived chaos in the world around the consumer could theoretically cause just that.  Consider stress testing what could happen if you experience another flight to safety of similar (as well as greater) magnitude combined with anemic loan demand to see the impact to your net worth ratio.  If net worth is at high risk of dropping below Well or Adequately Capitalized, identify viable steps you can take to be prepared.